Households are delevered, right?
A great new blog on Chinese domestic politics
My colleague at the Hopkins-Nanjing Center, Bernard Geoxavier, recently started a blog dedicated exclusively to the analysis of Chinese sources (yes, Chinese language sources) on Chinese domestic politics, entitled the China Leadership Watch. I highly recommend it.
My article on Chinese succession and Chinese foreign policy (Part 3 of 3)
I recently co-wrote the third article of my three-part series on Chinese succession for CNN.com. The article is available here.
Bernard and I argued that contrary to the narrative prevalent in the West, what China does is not necessarily about “us.”
My article on Bo Xilai and Chinese succession (Part 2 of 3)
I recently co-wrote the second article of my three-part series on Chinese succession for CNN.com. The article is available here.
In this installment, we discuss why Bo Xilai got sacked by the CCP and why Xi Jinping and other leaders have been reticent in the face of coup rumors and crashed red Ferraris.
My article on why Chinese succession matters (Part 1 of 3)
I’m currently in sunny Nanjing, PRC, working on my dissertation and studying Chinese. I also have been spending some time studying Chinese domestic politics with a classmate of mine at the Center, Bernard Geoxavier.
We recently wrote an article on Chinese succession for CNN.com, available here.
In our article, we discussed the recent hullabaloo involving Bo Xilai, a current former Party chief in Chongqing, and his police chief, Wang Lijun. Within twenty-four hours of publishing our article, it appears as though Beijing sacked Bo Xilai, effectively ending his chances of joining the PBSC. Now this is intrigue.
My article on China and North Korea for CNN.com
I just wrote an article on China and North Korea for CNN.com, where my co-author and I claim that China is the most important determinant of North Korea’s future.
On the Decline of Eastman Kodak
An American icon...into the dustbin of history
I grew up in Rochester, NY, and one of the mainstays of my Western, NY childhood was Eastman Kodak. I remember going to Kodak-sponsored minor league baseball and hockey games, and I even did my seventh grade biography project on George Eastman. (Did you know that he committed suicide?) I have fond memories of going to the George Eastman house museum and more recently even buying a Kodak digital camera back in 2002. One out of three of my friends’ parents worked at Kodak, and one of the key signs of social status in my middle school was the possession of a ticket to attend one of Kodak’s free screenings of kids movies on a Friday night, complete with endless popcorn, a reasonably generous goodie bag, and a free one-time use cameras for everyone.
I would imagine that Kodak’s long decline and eventual bankruptcy will eventually be studied by generations of students in business school. Though I am not an expert of management and in particular the imaging industry, I would guess that the principal reason for Kodak’s from grace boils down to their serial inability to manage the digital revolution in photography. Read More
My article on French banks for CNN.com
I just wrote an article about the infection of Europe’s core banks for CNN.com. Who thought subprime lending was a uniquely American phenomenon? To wit:
The longer this crisis wears on, the greater the damage done to the world economy. If there is one thing that the past few years should have taught us, it is to expect the unexpected in the wake of a financial crisis. In 2008, it seemed like subprime lending was a uniquely American problem. In 2011, it is clear that French banks played the role of subprime lender in Europe, while the entire European periphery was the willing subprime borrower. But Europe’s problems today are worse, because this ongoing episode was easily foreseen if one considered the pattern of contagion in the global financial crisis and historical propensity of sovereign debt crises to follow banking crises. Further, Europe lacks the institutional mechanisms necessary to coordinate and compel macroeconomic adjustment among peripheral and core members. Judging by the tepid growth, political stagnation, and debt overhang in Europe, it is hard to envision a smooth end to this European crisis.
Mais, c’est la vie!
Quoted in The Huffington Post
I was recently interviewed by the Huffington Post for an article the Wall Street brain drain. I waxed philosophical about why so many smart people work on Wall Street. I think that there is no single explanatory variable, but the model probably looks something like this:
P(seeking a job on wall street) = B1(parents’ income) + B2(amount of student debt) – B3(degree of idealism) + B4(number of friends also going into finance) – B5(entrepreneurial drive) + B6(aggregate utility of consumption) + B7(binary variable: played sports in undergrad)
Some of my select quotations:
“You have to really be entrepreneurial in your career to find a job in government right out of undergrad or start something in tech, advocacy, all of those things,” said Shenai. “They require so much more initiative. Then here you are with these finance firms laying this clear path in front of you. I think in my generation, you almost have this tendency where all smart people expect to reap linear rewards in a lock-step path. That’s exactly what finance provides.”
and
“The real reason why people work on Wall Street — it’s not rocket science — is because people follow incentives,” said Shenai. “The main incentive is just huge compensation.”
I should note that I do not fault anyone for taking a job on Wall Street. People follow incentives! I repeat: people follow incentives. It does not logically follow that “people who follow incentives are bad.”
My appearance on BBC World Service Radio discussing the Eurozone crisis
I just had the opportunity to serve as a guest on BBC World Service Radio’s World Have Your Say program, where I discussed the future of the Eurozone in light of recent news from Greece and Cannes. To listen to my podcast, click here. My ranting starts around 12:50. Enjoy!